Gold all-time high: good for the metal, red flag for stocks …

The price of gold hit a new record high at the end of July. It has been just above the $ 2,000 mark since the beginning of the month. A new high in the most important precious metal is a strong signal – with an impact on the entire financial market. Historically, this has had typical consequences for the metal itself as well as the stock market.

 

Gold remains “on fire”

For many years there was hardly a flower pot to be won with the precious metals. However, since last summer gold has started an upward trend again, which has now also led to an all-time high. Historically, this means the beginning rather than the end of the bull market. The following table shows all new all-time highs in the gold price since 1968, in which a new high was not already marked in the six months before. The consequence for the next three months (column 3) is largely the same: with one slight exception, the path always led upwards.

 

Stock markets: mixed picture

For the stock market, however, this signal is less edifying: three times of crisis followed the few gold all-time highs for the stock market. This year, too, the rising precious metal prices are linked to the growing uncertainty in the markets. One year after a new gold all-time high, the S & P500 has so far been down 4.1 percent on average.